Last Updated on January 30, 2023 by Scott Shetler
Who will be the big winner at the 2023 Grammys? Adele, Beyonce, or our dark horse candidate, Brandi Carlile? Welcome to our collection of 2023 Grammy Awards predictions and news articles. Check out our in-depth predictions of the major categories.
For now, here’s a list of the Grammy articles and category predictions we’ve published so far. Keep checking back, as we’ll be adding new predictions daily!
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2023 Grammy Awards Predictions
Here are the categories we’ve made predictions for so far. Click to read out analysis of each category, and keep checking back daily as we add new predictions!
More Category Predictions
Here are some short takes for additional 2023 Grammy categories.
BEST RAP ALBUM
Kendrick Lamar is a lock to win Best Rap Album for Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers. Although that album wasn’t nearly as well-received as Lamar’s previous Grammy-winning efforts, none of the other nominees (Pusha T, Future, Jack Harlow, DJ Khaled) can compete with the Grammy love for Lamar.
Best Rap Album Prediction:
Should win: Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers, Kendrick Lamar
Will win: Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers, Kendrick Lamar
BEST COUNTRY ALBUM
This one’s an interesting batch of nominees. The favorite is Miranda Lambert, who’s won twice before. But Maren Morris is an industry favorite, and Willie Nelson is an all-time legend. Then there’s Luke Combs, the reigning Entertainer of the Year and one of the most exciting new faces in recent years.
The Grammys often don’t go with the establishment country music choice – remember Garth Brooks only won 2 Grammys in his entire career – so Combs may not win here. We expect Lambert to triumph once again.
Best Country Album Prediction:
Should win: Growin’ Up, Luke Combs
Will win: Palomino, Miranda Lambert
BEST POP ALBUM
This figures to be an Adele vs. Harry Styles race, although Abba, Lizzo, and Coldplay will all get some votes. Styles won a Pop Grammy two years ago, while Adele has won countless Grammys over the past decade. Adele’s 30 wasn’t as successful as her previous releases, and the album is 15 months old by now.
So Styles has a real chance here. I’d love to see Harry win this one. But I’m just not going to bet against Adele. She’s won 15 of the 18 Grammys for which she has been nominated in her career. Based on that track record, I’m not going against her here.
Best Pop Album Prediction:
Should win: Harry’s House, Harry Styles
Will win: 30, Adele
BEST ALTERNATIVE ALBUM
This category is wide open, and I have no idea what to expect. There’s Bjork, who has infamously been nominated for 15 Grammys in her career without a win. Six of those previous noms came in this category. She’ll be the sentimental favorite to win.
Arcade Fire should be the rightful favorites. But singer Win Butler faced accusations of sexual misconduct last fall, and that could be enough to torpedo their chances in this category.
Wet Leg are the newcomers and critical darlings, but their impact has been overstated. They had one minor hit in the U.S. That won’t be enough to carry them to victory here. The Yeah Yeah Yeahs are the dark horses thanks to their excellent album, while Big Thief probably don’t have a chance.
In a tight race, I predict that Bjork finally gets her first Grammy at age 57.
Best Alternative Music Album Prediction:
Should win: We, Arcade Fire
Will win: Fossora, Bjork
BEST ROCK ALBUM
The Black Keys are long-time Grammy favorites, and they’re likely to win Best Rock Album again. They’ll face competition from Ozzy Osbourne, who released a surprisingly great record, and Elvis Costello, who will get a lot of votes as a legendary figure in the business.
My personal favorite was the emo-pop-punk effort from Machine Gun Kelly, but he has no chance.
Best Rock Album Prediction:
Should win: Mainstream Sellout, Machine Gun Kelly
Will win: Dropout Boogie, Black Keys
BEST MUSICA URBANA ALBUM
This one belongs to Bad Bunny for sure. Even if he doesn’t triumph in any other categories, Bad Bunny should take home this prize for his stellar effort Un Verano Sin Ti. Maluma and Daddy Yankee are worthy nominees, but this year belonged to Bad Bunny.
In case you were wondering, Rosalia’s Motomami is not nominated in this category, because it appears instead in the Best Latin Rock or Alternative Album.
Best Musica Urbana Prediction:
Should win: Un Verano Sin Ti, Bad Bunny
Will win: Un Verano Sin Ti, Bad Bunny
BEST MUSIC VIDEO
Many observers expect Taylor Swift’s 10-minute “All Too Well” to win Best Music Video, but I don’t see it. She’s nominated against Adele, who wins everything, even for videos that are rather boring (“Rolling in the Deep” won this category in 2012.) And Kendrick Lamar, a two-time winner here, is a contender for “The Heart Part 5.”
Swift and Adele will both get lots of votes, but they may end up canceling each other out and allowing Lamar to win. Let’s be honest – Kendrick deserves to win, as “The Heart Part 5” featured a mind-blowing face morphing (“deepfake”) sequence in which Lamar’s face transformed into OJ Simpson, Kanye West, and several others.
The Recording Academy rightly rewarded Lamar’s “Humble” in 2018, and they will do so again this year.
Best Music Video Prediction:
Should win: “The Heart Part 5,” Kendrick Lamar
Will win: “The Heart Part 5,” Kendrick Lamar
Other Grammy News Articles & Features
Original Article: Early Predictions for the 2023 Grammy Awards
NOTE: The article below was written before the Grammy nominees were announced. This was our prediction of who might get nominated.
It seems like yesterday that Jon Batiste and Silk Sonic completed their sweep of the ’22 Grammys, but we’re already well into the eligibility period for the 2023 Grammy Awards, so it’s time to make some early predictions!
October 1, 2021 was the beginning of the current Grammy window, which runs through September 30, 2022. Songs and albums released during that window will be eligible for next year’s Grammys.
Who are the leading contenders? Check out our 2023 Grammy predictions below, featuring a lot of familiar names, such as Adele, Harry Styles, the Bruno soundtrack, Silk Sonic (again), and Brandi Carlile, among others.
2023 Grammy Predictions: The Leading Contenders
The vocal diva wasn’t eligible for the 2022 Grammys, because her album 30 and its lead single “Easy on Me” were released after the deadline. The Recording Academy is in love with Adele, as evidenced by her two Album of the Year wins, so she seems like an obvious bet for another nomination in that category.
The only caveat is that her album will be 16 months old by the time the ’23 Grammys roll around. Given that 30 is not producing as many hit singles as Adele’s previous work, it’s entirely possible voters will forget about it, or choose to overlook it. Adele is still a strong contender for Album of the Year, but she’s not a guaranteed winner this time around.
Yes, Bruno Mars and Anderson .Paak just went 4 for 4 at the ’22 Grammys, but all of those awards were for one track, “Leave the Door Open.” The duo’s album An Evening With Silk Sonic didn’t come out until November 2021, making it a leading contender for Album of the Year in ’23.
That’s especially true since the Academy removed the controversial review committees that were previously used to narrow down the nominees. If the committees were still in place, they might decide that Silk Sonic have already won enough and don’t deserve to be nominated again. But with the vote left up to the rank and file Academy members, they’re incredibly likely to earn an Album of the Year nod. This Academy just can’t get enough of Bruno Mars.
UPDATE: Silk Sonic pulled themselves from 2023 Grammy contention at the last minute, writing, “We thank the Grammys for allowing us to perform on their platform — not once, but twice — and awarding us at last year’s ceremony. We’d be crazy to ask for anything more.” That was likely a wise move, as Mars would’ve faced enormous backlash if he ended up winning again and taking Album of the Year from Beyonce.
Americana rocker Brandi Carlile has rapidly become an Academy favorite, and with good reason. She wowed fans on the ’19 Grammy stage with her performance of “The Joke,” then pulled off a flawless encore this year with “Right on Time.”
In 2023, Carlile’s full album In These Silent Days will be eligible. Grammy voters love artists they perceive to be “real musicians,” and Carlile has the stunning voice and guitar prowess to potentially score an Album of the Year nomination. Such a nod would be well-deserved for Carlile.
Harry Styles has become a critical and commercial favorite. He won his first Grammy two years ago and should be in line for more nominations given the success of Harry’s House and its single “As It Was” and “Late Night Talking.”
“As it Was” was the biggest pop single of 2022 and is a heavy favorite to earn a Record of the Year nod.
Will this be the year that Beyonce finally wins Album of the Year? That’s the big question. Renaissance is a co-favorite for that award, along with Adele’s 30 and our dark horse contender, Brandi Carlile.
Her summer single “Break My Soul” was submitted for Best Dance/Electronic Recording, rather than the pop or R&B categories, and it should be a favorite there. Beyonce’s “Be Alive” from the King Richard film will be a favorite in the Visual Media category in 2023.
Other likely contenders
Taylor Swift could be in the running for the re-recorded version of her Red album. In particular, the 10-minute version of “All Too Well,” plus her collaborations with Phoebe Bridgers and Chris Stapleton, seem like ideal Grammy fodder.
Post Malone seems guaranteed to earn some Grammy nods now that his album has dropped. With “Rockstar,” “Sunflower,” and “Circles,” he became just the fourth artist in history to earn Record of the Year nods in three straight years. His latest effort hasn’t yet produced a smash hit on that level, but his name recognition should score the album some lover from voters.
Kendrick Lamar is already a three-time Album of the Year nominee, but it will be interesting to see if he earns a fourth with Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers. That album hasn’t had the cultural impact of his previous records, although the critical reviews have been solid.
Former Album of the Year winners Arcade Fire will be in contention in the Alternative field.
Other acts who are strong contenders on our list of 2023 Grammy predictions: Rosalia, Robert Plant & Alison Krauss, the Encanto soundtrack, Bad Bunny, Ed Sheeran, Big Thief, and Maren Morris. And we’d love to see Conan Gray snag a Best New Artist nomination, since he’s been one of the most impressive young artists in pop music over the past few years.
Best New Artist Contenders
This year, there wasn’t a huge newcomer like Olivia Rodrigo to put a lock on the Best New Artist award. So it will be fascinating to see who emerges from the field.
A number of artists who have already been around for years are still eligible for Best New Artist, due to the Grammys’ extremely liberal definition of “new.” Among the noteworthy artists on the ballot who are contenders for BNA: Mitski, King Princess, Flo Milli, Rina Sawayama, Snail Mail, Soccer Mommy, Maneskin, Omar Apollo, and Wet Leg.
At this early stage, we’d call Maneskin one of the favorites, with Latto, Zach Bryan, Mitski, Sawayama, Wet Leg, and Soccer Mommy also in contention.
Artists Who Would be Contenders if They Release New Music
Every year we add this section to cover artists who seem like surefire Grammy nominees, if they ever decide to put out new music. And every year, Rihanna tops the list. The 9-time Grammy winner has been coy for quite a while about whether she plans to release new material. If she does, expect the Academy to reward her.
We also can’t count out Jay-Z. While many critics consider the rapper past his prime, he is now the all-time leader in career Grammy nominations, so anything he does will earn consideration.
Who else do you think might get nominated? Leave us a comment with your 2023 Grammy predictions!