Last Updated on April 10, 2023 by Scott Shetler
It’s still early in the year, but we’re more than halfway through the eligibility window for the 2024 Grammy Awards! That means it’s time to start making some early 2024 Grammy predictions.
The leading contender so far is Taylor Swift, thanks to her Midnights album. But she has some competition.
The 2024 Grammy window runs from October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023. Any songs or albums released during that time could earn Grammy glory next year. So far, there haven’t been a huge number of noteworthy albums released during that time, so the door is wide open for summer 2023 albums to jump into the conversation.
Let’s discuss the leading contenders as of right now!
2024 Grammy Predictions: The Top Contenders
Taylor Swift
Swift has won Album of the Year three times already, which ties for the most wins in Grammy history. She won for Fearless, 1989, and Folklore, while also earning nominations for Red and Evermore.
Released in October 2022, Midnights earned solid reviews and Swift’s typical huge sales numbers. However, a couple factors are working against it. By the time the 2024 Grammys roll around, the album will be 16 months old, and voters may no longer care much about it.
Second, the album hasn’t produced a ton of big singles like Swift’s previous albums. The lead single “Anti-Hero” reached #1, but second single “Lavender Haze,” despite a strong debut position, never got higher than #6 on the Pop Airplay chart. We’re still waiting to find out if there will even be a third single.
Midnights will almost certainly be nominated for Album of the Year. The question is whether it will win. That will be determined largely by who else releases new music in the next few months. “Anti-Hero” should get some love in the Pop Solo Performance category and potentially Song of the Year.
SZA
The only noteworthy album release in December was SZA’s SOS, which went on to spend a whopping 10 weeks at #1. The R&B star already has an Oscar nomination under her belt (for Black Panther’s “All the Stars” with Kendrick Lamar), and she won a Grammy and an American Music Award for her Doja Cat collab “Kiss Me More.”
The former Best New Artist nominee scored the biggest pop hit of her career with “Kill Bill,” and seems likely to earn an Album of the Year nod in 2024. But if Beyonce still can’t win Album of the Year, don’t expect SZA to take home that award.
Morgan Wallen
Since his distasteful controversies, Morgan Wallen has just gotten more popular with country music fans. All 36 of the tracks from his double-album One Thing at a Time debuted in the Hot 100, setting a record.
The question is whether the Recording Academy will choose to recognize Wallen. He’s never earned a Grammy nod, and Grammy voters historically tend to favor more liberal and progressive country artists, like Kacey Musgraves, the Chicks, and Sturgill Simpson.
We may have reached the point, however, where Wallen’s commercial and cultural success is just too much for the Academy to ignore.
Rihanna
Regardless of whether Rihanna puts out a new album this year, the Wakanda Forever ballad “Lift Me Up” will be a eligible for the 2024 Grammys. It will be a strong contender for Best Song Written for Visual Media, Best Pop Solo Performance, and perhaps even Song of the Year and Record of the Year.
Rihanna has 9 Grammys already out of 33 nominations. That’s a pretty good winning percentage, but it doesn’t necessarily make her a shoo-in for any category.
Miley Cyrus
Miley has yet to win a Grammy, but she’s in the conversation because there just haven’t been that many high-profile album releases during the eligibility period so far.
The single “Flowers” reached #1 and became one of the catchiest songs of early 2023. It should be in the running for a few awards, notably Pop Solo Performance.
Other Likely Contenders
Lana Del Rey and Sam Smith both figure to get some votes in the Pop field. Both have previous nominations for Album of the Year and are in the running to appear in that category again.
Pink and U2 are former Grammy winners who aren’t quite as big commercially as they once were, but they may still be capable of earning a few nominations.
The Dave Matthews Band could be contenders in the Rock field for their new album Walk Around the Moon, their first release in five years. Bruce Springsteen could provide competition, although it’s unclear whether his album of soul covers would be considered in the Rock categories.
Others who should be considered on any list of 2024 Grammy predictions include Ed Sheeran, Drake (if he allows his music to be submitted for consideration), Luke Combs, the National, and Gorillaz.
We’re also curious whether Shania Twain could earn a Grammy nom or two for her comeback effort and single “Giddy Up!”
And I’m hopeful that Grammy voters may be willing to show some love to Caroline Polachek, whose “Welcome to My Island” is easily the best pop song of 2023 so far.
Artists Who Will Be Contenders If They Release New Music
We still don’t know for sure which artists will be issuing new albums in the next few months. But it’s safe to say that Jay-Z and Kanye West are among the artists who would certainly earn Grammy nods if they release new music.
Despite his personal strife, Kanye is still earning Grammy noms, including an Album of the Year nod just two years ago. And Jay-Z is currently tied with his wife Beyonce for most Grammy nominations in history.
Olivia Rodrigo, already a 3-time Grammy winners, could add to that tally if she releases her sophomore album in 2023.
Blink-182 could garner a nod in the Alternative field after their comeback album is released.
Cardi B, Kelly Clarkson, Doja Cat, and Dua Lipa are among the other artists who would be immediate Grammy contenders if they decide to drop new music this year.
Who else do you think might get nominated? Leave a comment with your 2024 Grammy predictions!
Rapper Agust D. Take a look at his US tour. Can you just ignore 300 million sell out in 3 days? Come on. American music awards brag on being inclusive but how can you possibly be all that without the Asian elements. Do fans count for nothing?