2024 Grammy Predictions: Analysis Features, and Complete Coverage

The 2024 Grammy Award nominees have finally been revealed, and as expected, female superstars Taylor Swift, SZA, Olivia Rodrigo, and Boygenius were among the biggest nominees.

Who’s going to take home the gramophone in the biggest categories? Read our quick takes on most of the big awards below.

taylor swift 2024 grammy predictions

2024 Predictions: Major Categories

RECORD OF THE YEAR

Nominees:
“Worship,” Jon Batiste
“Not Strong Enough,” Boygenius
“Flowers,” Miley Cyrus
“What Was I Made For?,” Billie Eilish
“On My Mama,” Victoria Monét
“Vampire,” Olivia Rodrigo
“Anti-Hero,” Taylor Swift
“Kill Bill,” SZA

Record of the Year is a really tough call, because it features a bunch of artists who have already won a lot of Grammys, and for whom voters may have “Grammy fatigue.”

Do the voters want to reward Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, Jon Batiste, or Billie Eilish yet again? Or do they go in a different direction with Boygenius, Miley Cyrus, or SZA?

Eilish and Swift will get a lot of votes. SZA and Monet will likely split the R&B vote. There’s no rap nominee this year, so it’s possible SZA will pick up those votes as well.

When there’s a cluster like this, the winner is often the most rock-leaning of the tracks. So we’ll go with Boygenius to pull the upset.

Record of the Year Prediction:
Should win: “Vampire,” Olivia Rodrigo
Will win: “Not Strong Enough,” Boygenius

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

Nominees:
World Music Radio, Jon Batiste
The Record, Boygenius
Endless Summer Vacation, Miley Cyrus
Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd, Lana Del Rey
The Age of Pleasure, Janelle Monae
Guts, Olivia Rodrigo
Midnights, Taylor Swift
SOS, SZA

The big question for Album of the Year is whether Taylor Swift will become the first four-time winner in Grammy history in this category. She last won for Folklore a few years back, and she’s a contender for Midnights.

But her tough competition includes SZA, Boygenius, Lana Del Rey, and Olivia Rodrigo. And the 2022 winner, Jon Batiste, is back again. Del Rey should get a lot of votes, since she has yet to win a Grammy.

The unexpected inclusion of Janelle Monae probably means that SZA can’t win, since both R&B singers will be pulling votes from the same audience. Rodrigo didn’t win this one two years ago, when she was white hot, so don’t expect her to pull this one out.

This is going to be a very close race, and I fear the seven female nominees may split the vote and allow the lone dude, Batiste, to pull off another disappointing upset. That would be an embarrassment for the Recording Academy.

But ultimately, I think the rock act wins out. The call here is a very narrow win for Boygenius in a nail-biter over Swift and Batiste.

Album of the Year Prediction:
Should win: The Record, Boygenius
Will win: The Record, Boygenius

SONG OF THE YEAR

Nominees (awarded to the songwriter):
“What Was I Made For?,” Bille Eilish & Finneas O’Connell
“Vampire,” Daniel Nigro & Olivia Rodrigo
“Kill Bill,” Rob Bisel, Carter Lang & Solána Rowe
“Flowers,” Miley Cyrus, Gregory Aldae Hein & Michael Pollack
“Dance the Night,” Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt
“Butterfly,” Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson
“Anti-Hero,” Jack Antonoff & Taylor Swift
“A&W,” Jack Antonoff, Lana Del Rey & Sam Dew

This year’s batch of Song of the Year nominees features an absolute A-list of superstar contenders. Taylor Swift is nominated for a sixth time, and she has yet to win. “Anti-Hero” could be the song that allows her to finally break through.

Eilish, Batiste, and Rodrigo feel like old news in this category, and Del Rey’s nominated song wasn’t even a single. SZA has a good shot. Since the category lacks a hip-hop nominee, she could scoop up a lot of those votes.

Our call is that Taylor finally takes home the award, edging out Olivia Rodrigo and SZA.

Song of the Year Prediction:
Should win: “Vampire,” Olivia Rodrigo & Daniel Nigro
Will win: “Anti-Hero,” Taylor Swift & Jack Antonoff

BEST NEW ARTIST

Nominees:
Gracie Abrams
Fred again…
Ice Spice
Jelly Roll
Coco Jones
Noah Kahan
Victoria Monet
The War and Treaty

Ice Spice may seem like the obvious winner here, since she was all over the charts and pop culture this year. But she could very well be upset by country newcomer Jelly Roll or pop-folkie Noah Kahan.

Those three are far ahead of the pack in this category, though Victoria Monet will get some votes. Country-leaning acts Jelly Roll and the War and Treaty each could have been a contender, but they’ll pull votes from each other and ensure that neither wins.

Though the odds favor Ice Spice, hip-hop artists traditionally don’t fare well in this category. Kahan is well-liked by rock and folk artists, and has collaborated with a range of influential artists. The prediction is that Kahan pulls the upset over Ice Spice and Jelly Roll.

Best New Artist Prediction:
Should win: Ice Spice
Will win: Noah Kahan

BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM

Nominees:
Chemistry, Kelly Clarkson
Endless Summer Vacation, Miley Cyrus
Guts, Olivia Rodrigo
, Ed Sheeran
Midnights, Taylor Swift

It’s yet another Olivia vs. Taylor showdown. Miley Cyrus and Kelly Clarkson are here too, but they’re not likely to challenge for this award. Ed Sheeran has an outside chance as the only dude in the group, and a past Grammy winner. We’ll give a slight edge to Swift over Rodrigo.

Best Pop Vocal Album Prediction:
Should win: Guts, Olivia Rodrigo
Will win: Midnights, Taylor Swift

BEST COUNTRY ALBUM

Nominees:
Rolling Up the Welcome Mat, Kelsea Ballerini
Brothers Osborne, Brothers Osborne
Zach Bryan, Zach Bryan
Rustin’ in the Rain, Tyler Childers
Bell Bottom Country, Lainey Wilson

Zach Bryan was the biggest thing in country music this summer. But is the Americana singer “country” enough to take home this trophy? Or might newly-crowned CMA Entertainer of the Year Lainey Wilson take the Grammy?

All five of these artists are fantastic. Brothers Osborne and Kelsea Ballerini both deserve all the acclaim they get, but their nominated albums weren’t quite as big as their previous work. Tyler Childers is a dark horse as the heralded newcomer.

But in this case, we’ll go with the guy who has both the critical acclaim and the album chart success. Zach Bryan edges out Lainey Wilson.

Best Country Album Prediction:
Should win: Zach Bryan, Zach Bryan
Will win: Zach Bryan, Zach Bryan

BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM

Nominees:
The Car, Arctic Monkeys
The Record, Boygenius
Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd, Lana Del Rey
Cracker Island, Gorillaz
I Inside the Old Year Dying, PJ Harvey

Best Alternative Album is usually where you can find the coolest music at the Grammys, but this year’s batch of nominees is questionable. Gorillaz? Seriously? PJ Harvey? Arctic Monkeys? What, is this 2008?

Women have fared well in this category recently, with St. Vincent and Fiona Apple taking home the past two awards. Boygenius and Lana Del Rey clearly had the best albums in this category. While we picked Boygenius to win Record and Album of the Year, Del Rey has a great chance to win here.

Voters know that Lana hasn’t won a Grammy, and this may be her best shot. Still, I think Boygenius will edge out Del Rey to win this award.

Best Alternative Album Prediction:
Should win: The Record, Boygenius
Will win: The Record, Boygenius

BEST RAP ALBUM

Nominees:
Her Loss, Drake & 21 Savage
Michael, Killer Mike
Heroes & Villains, Metro Boomin
King’s Disease III, Nas
Utopia, Travis Scott

What a sad year for rap music. Somebody has to come along soon and do something different to get hip-hop out of this monotonous trap beat obsession that it’s been stuck in for years now.

Even though female rappers have provided the most exciting rap music of the past few years, the Grammys nominated all men in this category. While Nas and Travis Scott will provide competition, this award is likely to go to Drake & 21 Savage.

Even though Drake has said he doesn’t care about Grammys, he’s the biggest name in the bunch. And that’s all that normally matters in this category.

Best Rap Album Prediction:
Should win: Her Loss, Drake & 21 Savage
Will win: Her Loss, Drake & 21 Savage

BEST COMEDY ALBUM

Nominees:
What’s in a Name?, Dave Chappelle
I Wish You Would, Trevor Noah
Selective Outrage, Chris Rock
Someone You Love, Sarah Silverman
I’m an Entertainer, Wanda Sykes

A category historically dominated by white males, Best Comedy Album this year features three men of color and two women. Yet, somehow, this category is still hopelessly behind the times. The voters continue to nominate comedians who were at their peak more than a decade ago, rather than recognizing up-and-coming talent. That’s immensely, disappointing, given how many popular comedians have emerged in the past decade.

Where’s Nate Bargatze? Where’s John Mulaney? Fortune Feimster? Mark Normand? Sam Morril? Taylor Tomlinson? Sheng Wang? The list the Grammys have given us is in no way representative of the best standup comedy over the past year.

Though Chris Rock and Sarah Silverman are big names, we’re going to keep picking three-time winner Dave Chappelle in this category until someone proves they can beat him.

Best Comedy Album Prediction:
Should win: Selective Outrage, Chris Rock
Will win: What’s in a Name?, Dave Chappelle

See more related Grammy content:
Most Grammy Nominations of All-Time: The Complete List
How Long Will Beyonce Hold the Grammy Record?
How to Vote for the Grammy Awards: A Guide to Voting Eligibility
Has There Ever Been a Tie at the Grammys? Yes, Here’s the Complete List
Why Has Nicki Minaj Never Won a Grammy?

Original Article: Early Predictions for the 2024 Grammy Awards

NOTE: The article below was written before the Grammy nominees were announced. This was our prediction of who might get nominated. See our new list of 2025 Grammy predictions.

Believe it or not, the eligibility window for the 2024 Grammy Awards is now closed! That means it’s time to start making some early 2024 Grammy predictions.

The leading contender so far is Taylor Swift, thanks to her Midnights album. But she has some competition.

The 2024 Grammy window ran from October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023. Any songs or albums released during that time could earn Grammy glory next year. There weren’t a huge number of noteworthy albums released during that time span, so the door is wide open for some unexpected records to jump into the conversation.

Let’s discuss the leading contenders as of right now!

2024 Grammy Predictions: The Top Contenders

Taylor Swift

Swift has won Album of the Year three times already, which ties for the most wins in Grammy history. She won for Fearless, 1989, and Folklore, while also earning nominations for Red and Evermore.

Released in October 2022, Midnights earned solid reviews and Swift’s typical huge sales numbers. However, a couple factors are working against it. By the time the 2024 Grammys roll around, the album will be 16 months old, and voters may no longer care much about it.

Second, the album hasn’t produced a ton of big singles like Swift’s previous albums. The lead single “Anti-Hero” reached #1, but second single “Lavender Haze,” despite a strong debut position, never got higher than #6 on the Pop Airplay chart. The third single “Karma” did reach the top 5.

Midnights will almost certainly be nominated for Album of the Year. The question is whether it will win. That will be determined largely by how much Taylor fatigue Grammy voters have. “Anti-Hero” should get some love in the Pop Solo Performance category and potentially Song of the Year.

SZA

The only noteworthy album release in December was SZA’s SOS, which went on to spend a whopping 10 weeks at #1. The R&B star already has an Oscar nomination under her belt (for Black Panther’s “All the Stars” with Kendrick Lamar), and she won a Grammy and an American Music Award for her Doja Cat collab “Kiss Me More.”

The former Best New Artist nominee scored the biggest pop hit of her career with “Kill Bill,” and seems likely to earn an Album of the Year nod in 2024. But if Beyonce still can’t win Album of the Year, don’t expect SZA to take home that award.

Morgan Wallen

Since his distasteful controversies, Morgan Wallen has somehow just gotten more popular with country music fans. All 36 of the tracks from his double-album One Thing at a Time debuted in the Hot 100, setting a record.

The question is whether the Recording Academy will choose to recognize Wallen. He’s never earned a Grammy nod, and Grammy voters historically tend to favor more liberal and progressive country artists, like Kacey Musgraves, the Chicks, and Sturgill Simpson.

We may have reached the point, however, where Wallen’s commercial and cultural success is just too much for the Academy to ignore. Especially with “Last Night” earning big time airplay on pop radio.

Boygenius

Remember the name Boygenius, as they are serious contenders for Album of the Year. The indie rock supergroup of Julien Baker, Phoebe Bridgers, and Lucy Dacus released an acclaimed album and scored a couple hits on the rock and AAA charts.

Grammy voters love rock albums in the big category, even ones that weren’t multi-platinum smashes (see previous wins by Arcade Fire, Beck, and Mumford & Sons.)

If voters decide that Swift’s Midnights isn’t up to her usual Album of the Year standards, they could absolutely go for Boygenius instead.

Rihanna

Rihanna didn’t end up putting out a new album this year, but the Wakanda Forever ballad “Lift Me Up” will be a eligible for the 2024 Grammys. It will be a strong contender for Best Song Written for Visual Media, Best Pop Solo Performance, and perhaps even Song of the Year and Record of the Year.

Rihanna has 9 Grammys already out of 33 nominations. That’s a pretty good winning percentage, but it doesn’t necessarily make her a shoo-in for any category.

Miley Cyrus

Miley has yet to win a Grammy, but she’s in the conversation because there just haven’t weren’t that many high-profile album releases during the eligibility period.

The single “Flowers” reached #1 and became one of the catchiest songs of early 2023. It should be in the running for a few awards, notably Pop Solo Performance and maybe even Record of the Year.

Barbie: The Album

The cultural phenomenon Barbie: The Album could produce a few different nominees in the Pop, Dance, and Soundtrack fields. Dua Lipa’s “Dance the Night,” the Billie Eilish track “What Was I Made For?,” and the Nicki Minaj-Ice Spice collab “Barbie World” are all possible Grammy nominees.

Minaj famously has never won a Grammy. Might this be her opportunity?

Other Likely Contenders

Lana Del Rey and Sam Smith both figure to get some votes in the Pop field. Both have previous nominations for Album of the Year and are in the running to appear in that category again.

Olivia Rodrigo is in the running now that she has finally issued the “Vampire” single and the September album release of Guts, though it hasn’t yet been as commercially successful as her Grammy-winning debut.

Pink, Kelly Clarkson, and U2 are former Grammy winners who aren’t quite as big commercially as they once were, but they may still be capable of earning a few nominations. Same goes for Foo Fighters, who seem to win Grammys for just about everything they release.

The Dave Matthews Band could be contenders in the Rock field for their new album Walk Around the Moon, their first release in five years. Bruce Springsteen could provide competition, although it’s unclear whether his album of soul covers would be considered in the Rock categories.

Doja Cat dropped Scarlet just time for it to be eligible. She’s a good bet to earn some Grammy love in the Pop or Hip Hop fields.

Others who should be considered on any list of 2024 Grammy predictions include Ed Sheeran, Drake (if he allows his music to be submitted for consideration), Luke Combs, the National, and Gorillaz.

We’re also curious whether Shania Twain could earn a Grammy nom or two for her comeback effort and single “Giddy Up!”

And I’m hopeful that Grammy voters may be willing to show some love to Caroline Polachek, whose “Welcome to My Island” is easily the best pop song of 2023 so far.

Jay-Z and Kanye West were among the artists who would certainly earn Grammy nods if they released new music, but the deadline passed without new material from either.

Despite his personal strife, Kanye is still earning Grammy noms, including an Album of the Year nod just two years ago. And Jay-Z is currently tied with his wife Beyonce for most Grammy nominations in history.

Blink-182 could garner a nod in the Alternative field after their comeback album is released. But it didn’t happen this year, so that will have to wait until next year.

We’ll be honest: It’s been a realllly slow year for popular music. We can’t remember a year with so few obvious nominees. That leaves the door wide open. It should be a fascinating year.

Who else do you think might get nominated? Leave a comment with your 2024 Grammy predictions!

Last Updated on February 5, 2024

8 thoughts on “2024 Grammy Predictions: Analysis Features, and Complete Coverage”

  1. Rapper Agust D. Take a look at his US tour. Can you just ignore 300 million sell out in 3 days? Come on. American music awards brag on being inclusive but how can you possibly be all that without the Asian elements. Do fans count for nothing?

    Reply
  2. I think that AgustD- Min Yoongi should get nominated for song writer. His new album- Solo tour has been a sell out. And his new music with Halsey for Diablow is great. He has numerous hits written by him with his group as well as solo works.

    Reply
  3. Bueno respondere pero ni al caso esos premios son unos racistas a mi en lo personal como a muchos nos gusta la musica asiatica Flowers al igual que Seven son las canciones de verano 2023 mas exitosas uy pero no los vejetes del grammy nunca premiaran a un coreano, porque se sienten los Dioses de la musica wac aqui premian a sus conocidos y a la taylor swit que la verdad sangrona la vieja casi apuesto q se lo daran a Flowers ni al caso ver estos premios mediocres que se queden con su musica gringa prefiero la musica britanica,asiatica y latina por mil

    Reply
  4. Nas king’s disease 3 is by far the album of the year. It would surely be a crime not to have that album there.. Besides his latest release Magic 3 is the only rap album closest to KD3

    Reply

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