2026 Album of the Year Grammy Nominees:
• Debí Tirar Más Fotos, Bad Bunny
• Let God Sort Em Out, Clipse, Pusha T & Malice
• Swag, Justin Bieber
• GNX, Kendrick Lamar
• Mayhem, Lady Gaga
• Mutt, Leon Thomas
• Man’s Best Friend, Sabrina Carpenter
• Chromakopia, Tyler, the Creator
The Analysis
This is a strong group of 2026 Album of the Year Grammy nominees.
For most of the year, this was viewed as Kendrick Lamar’s award. He swept the big awards at last year’s ceremony for “Not Like Us,” and he’s won more than 20 Grammys in his career, so it was logical to think that GNX would dominate.
But after scoring a hit with “Luther” early in the year, Lamar didn’t make much noise the rest of 2025. And that allowed Lady Gaga to enter the picture and become the co-favorite. Mayhem returned her to the classic Gaga dance-pop sound and made her a sentimental favorite.
But Lady Gaga has never won one of the Big Three awards at the Grammys. Her 14 awards have mostly come in the Pop, Dance, and Music Video fields. Perhaps she’s always been perceived as just a little too quirky or odd for the majority of the Recording Academy to embrace her.
And then last week came the news that all members of the Latin Grammy Academy (who vote for the Latin Grammy Awards) are now eligible voters for the traditional Grammy Awards as well. That’s lots of new members who presumably wouldn’t mind seeing Bad Bunny take home the gramophone.
Of course, not all of these new members are automatically going to vote for Debí Tirar Más Fotos. Some of these voters are surely fans of Gaga or Kendrick or Sabrina.
But it’s logical that a lot of these new crossover voters will want to support Bad Bunny’s album, because, first and foremost, it’s damn good. And secondly, Bad Bunny winning Album of the Year would be a huge win for Latin music in America.
This dynamic, combined with the fact that Bad Bunny has been in the news a lot, with his recent hosting appearance on Saturday Night Live and the news of his upcoming Super Bowl performance, makes Bad Bunny the slight favorite in our eyes to win Album of the Year.
Lamar is still a contender. But the fact that two other rap albums got nominated here means that votes could be split among the hip hop nominees. And no rap album has won this award since Outkast in 2004. As a result, we don’t think Lamar will pull this one out.
Tyler the Creator and Clipse both made excellent, innovative records, but they won’t have the votes to win here — not with three rap albums in contention.
Neither will Justin Bieber, who remarkably keeps getting nominated in major categories, even though he’s only 2 for 23 in his Grammy career. He clearly has a lot of support within the Academy, but not enough to take home one of the biggest trophies.
Leon Thomas is on the rise, but still may not have enough name recognition to win.
Do not overlook Sabrina Carpenter here. She won two major awards last year, and she’s quickly become a Grammy darling. She could absolutely pull pop votes away from Gaga, or even win the award herself.
What really stands out is that there’s no adult contemporary choice among the nominees. Samara Joy, Jon Batiste, Alex Warren, Laufey, and Elton John & Brandi Carlile were all considered contenders, yet all were overlooked in this category.
The more conservative Grammy voters who might have gone for one of those artists could head in Carpenter’s direction now. Even though her lyrics can be somewhat edgy, she’s more of a mainstream pop act than the others, and she better fits the pattern of previous Album of the Year winners.
There’s also no country album in the category this year. Carpenter may be the most country-adjacent option here.
Album of the Year Prediction
While we do have Bad Bunny as the favorite, it’s entirely possible that Lamar, Gaga, or Carpenter will win this award, depending how the votes split. We just don’t know how the new Academy members will vote.
It’s hard to overlook Lamar’s sparkling track record at the Grammys. Gaga is now in the Beyonce role of “veteran artist who deserves an overdue Album of the Year win.” And we have a strong gut feeling about Sabrina Carpenter as a dark horse. She could pull this one out.
But the pick here is that Bad Bunny earns a historic Album of the Year victory for a wildly successful album.
2026 Grammy Awards: Album of the Year Prediction
Deserves to win: Mayhem, Lady Gaga
Will win: Debí Tirar Más Fotos, Bad Bunny
Should have been nominated: Virgin, Lorde
See also our complete list of 2026 Grammy predictions. And here’s a list of every Album of the Year winner in history.
Last Updated on February 5, 2026