2026 Best New Artist Grammy Nominees:
• Olivia Dean
• Katseye
• The Marias
• Addison Rae
• Sombr
• Leon Thomas
• Alex Warren
• Lola Young
The Analysis
Welcome to a wide-open Best New Artist race. Quite often, the Best New Artist nominee with the most total Grammy nominations end up winning.
This year, that would be Leon Thomas, whose six nods leads this field. Katseye and Lola Young each have two noms, while the others have no nominations beyond Best New Artist.
Thomas already has a Grammy Award from 2024 for co-writing SZA’s “Snooze.” After scoring numerous hits as a producer, he earned his first performer Top 10 hit this year with “Mutt.”
Will that be enough to earn him the Best New Artist award? Quite possibly. But the votes should be split among several different nominees.
Alex Warren broke through this year with “Ordinary,” which spent a whopping 10 weeks at #1. He won the MTV Video Music Award for Best New Artist. But “Ordinary” surprisingly didn’t get any Grammy nominations in other categories. That leads us to think he may not be the leading contender here.
Addison Rae technically still hasn’t scored a Top 40 hit in the U.S., but she charted and got lots of attention with “Diet Pepsi,” “Headphones On,” and “Fame is a Gun.” Her album hit #4, and she has higher name recognition than some of her fellow nominees.
Katseye exploded out of nowhere this year. The global girl group, featuring members from South Korea, the Phillippines, Switzerland, and the U.S., is nominated for Best Pop Duo/Group Performance for “Gabriela.”
Indie rockers the Marias, who perform in both English and Spanish, could benefit from the Recording Academy’s new influx of international voting members. They’ve collaborated with Bad Bunny and Selena Gomez, and will likely have a lot of support from voters.
Lola Young’s “Messy” got to #14 and earned her critical acclaim early in the year. Voters also nominated her for Best Pop Solo Performance, which is a good sign. But in this category, voters often prefer an artist whose breakout came later in the year.
That could be Olivia Dean, who is still on the charts with her first hit with “Man I Need.” Opening for Sabrina Carpenter certainly helped her visibility. We project her as an early favorite for the 2027 Grammys as well.
Sombr built a following on TikTok before breaking through with multiple hits, including “Back to Friends” and “Undressed.” He may have the most promise of anyone in this group. Rolling Stone said his debut album “has everything pop music has been missing,” and he won a VMA.
But being the actual best artist doesn’t always mean winning the award, as we’ve seen many times over the years.
Best New Artist Prediction
So who will take home this award? Olivia Dean has the most current hit with “Man I Need.” The Marias could sneak in as the dark horse. Women usually win this award, but with so many to split the vote, this could go to one of the guys in 2026.
We won’t overthink this one. Leon Thomas has by far the most Grammy nominations of the group, and he’s been building his reputation by working with acts like Ariana Grande and Drake for more than a decade.
Also, there are no rap artists in this category, leaving a void that could help Thomas as the most hip-hop-adjacent choice. Leon Thomas will likely have the most support among Recording Academy voters.
2026 Grammy Awards: Best New Artist Prediction
Deserves to win: Sombr
Will win: Leon Thomas
Should have been nominated: Ella Langley
See also our complete list of 2026 Grammy predictions. And here’s a list of every Best New Artist winner in history.
Last Updated on December 13, 2025