2026 Best Pop Solo Performance Grammy Nominees:
• Daisies, Justin Bieber
• Manchild, Sabrina Carpenter
• Disease, Lady Gaga
• The Subway, Chappell Roan
• Messy, Lola Young
The Analysis
The Grammys love them some Sabrina Carpenter. Last year, while the critical favorite was Chappell Roan – and Roan did manage to take home Best New Artist – Carpenter won two high-profile awards, Best Pop Vocal Album (Short ‘n Sweet) and Best Pop Solo Performance (“Espresso.”)
Carpenter is again nominated for six awards in 2026, for Man’s Best Friend. “Manchild” was the biggest hit in this category, debuting at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100. The song and its memorable hook were all over the radio this year.
It was written with reigning Songwriter of the Year Amy Allen and former Producer of the Year Jack Antonoff. It feels as though Sabrina is at the height of her popularity right now. Everything about “Manchild” screams “Grammy winner!”
Carpenter’s main competition will likely be Lady Gaga, whose rebirth in 2025 led to her earning a whopping seven nods. While Mayhem and “Abracadabra” could take home awards, “Disease” isn’t one of Gaga’s most beloved hits. It only reached #27 on the singles chart.
Still, it’s telling that “Disease” picked up a nomination here over songs that figured to be Grammy favorites, like Billie Eilish’s “Wildflower” and Alex Warren’s “Ordinary.”
That means some voters just love Lady Gaga and are picking her in every category. That could be enough for her to claim this award, which she won in 2019 for “Joanne.”
Roan is nominated for “The Subway,” a decent song that didn’t do much on the charts. If she couldn’t win last year for “Pink Pony Club,” it’s unlikely that “The Subway” will take the award. We would’ve preferred to see Roan’s barnburning “The Giver” instead.
Lola Young is in the “it’s an honor just to be nominated” role. Though it’s a fun song, “Messy” is not expected to beat out the bigger names in this category. Young’s two nominations this year are a good sign for potential future success, if she can score more hits.
We wouldn’t rule out Justin Bieber. As the only dude in the category, he’s got a shot if Carpenter, Gaga, and Roan split the vote and cancel each other out.
But Bieber has never had much luck at the Grammys, winning only twice in 23 nominations, once in Dance (with Skrillex and Diplo) and once in Country (with Dan + Shay.)
Justin does have four more noms this year, including Album of the Year, so he still has a surprising amount of Recording Academy support. But we can’t reasonably call him a leading contender in this category. It would take a sizable upset for Bieber to prevail.
Best Pop Solo Performance Prediction
Carpenter is still riding high from last year’s wins, and once the Recording Academy chooses someone as a favorite, that person rarely loses that status.
Since Roan and Gaga are nominated for songs that weren’t their biggest hits, Carpenter should be a strong favorite to win the gramophone for Best Pop Solo Performance for the second year in a row.
Our prediction is that “Manchild” emerges as the winner.
2026 Grammy Awards: Best Pop Solo Performance Prediction
Deserves to win: Manchild, Sabrina Carpenter
Will win: Manchild, Sabrina Carpenter
Should have been nominated: Love Me Not, Ravyn Lenae
See also our complete list of 2026 Grammy predictions. And here’s a list of every Best Pop Solo Performance winner in history.
Last Updated on December 13, 2025