2026 Record of the Year Grammy Nominees:
• DtMF, Bad Bunny
• Manchild, Sabrina Carpenter
• Anxiety, Doechii
• Wildflower, Billie Eilish
• Abracadabra, Lady Gaga
• Luther, Kendrick Lamar & SZA
• The Subway, Chappell Roan
• APT., Rosé & Bruno Mars
The Analysis
Bruno Mars has won 14 of the last 15 Grammy Awards for which he’s been nominated. Should we just end this article now and give the Grammy to Bruno and Rosé?
Not so fast. “APT.” is the best song here, but it will be 16 months old by the time the Grammys roll around in February. Mars rarely loses at the Grammys, but he’s viewed more as a featured artist on this track (although he’s co-billed with Rosé as a primary artist.)
The only Grammy Mars has lost in the past several years was Song of the Year last year, when he was nominated with Lady Gaga for “Die With a Smile.” That tends to support the idea that he loses his Grammy invincibility when he’s part of a duo.
It would be cool to see Rosé win Record of the Year and earn a historic win for K-Pop at the Grammys. But it’s going to be a challenge, given this group of nominees.
There are arguments to be made for and against every nominee in this category. Chappell Roan, Billie Eilish, and Bad Bunny are Grammy darlings, but none are nominated for their biggest hits.
Eilish has already won Record of the Year twice. But “Wildflower” surprisingly did not get a nod for Best Pop Solo Performance, which means her Grammy influence may be slightly waning.
Gaga’s “Abracadabra” was one of the big hits of the year, but she has yet to win one of the major awards at the Grammys. Could this be the year that voters give her some overdue love in one of the big categories, either this one or Album of the Year?
Kendrick Lamar’s “Luther” was massive, but it wasn’t as big as “Not Like Us,” which won last year, and voters may be suffering Kendrick fatigue.
One artist here who’s nominated for her biggest hit and remains at the peak of her commercial success is Sabrina Carpenter. But can she beat out all of these other big names?
The only two nominees we can confidently rule out are Doechii and Chappell Roan. Roan’s “The Subway” wasn’t a big hit, and while the Academy likes Doechii, “Anxiety” won’t beat out Kendrick here.
Record of the Year Prediction
This one is all about “genre demographics.” We’ve got a bunch of great pop songs all potentially splitting the vote.
Pop fans will divide their votes among “Abracadabra,” “Manchild,” and “APT.,” which means none of them are likely to win. That makes “Luther” and “DtMF” the favorites.
Lamar is fresh off last year’s big Grammy win, and figures to be the leading contender. But don’t rule out Bad Bunny. Even though “DtMF” wasn’t as big a hit as “Luther,” Bad Bunny will benefit from the Grammys’ recent change allowing all members of the Latin Recording Academy to vote for the traditional Grammy Awards. That should make this a very tight race, with Bad Bunny as the dark horse.
We predict “Luther” will win ROY, making Kendrick Lamar the third artist this century (joining U2 and Billie Eilish) to win back-to-back Record of the Year Grammys.
2026 Grammy Awards: Record of the Year Prediction
Deserves to win: APT., Rosé & Bruno Mars
Will win: Luther, Kendrick Lamar & SZA
Should have been nominated: That’s So True, Gracie Abrams
See also our complete list of 2026 Grammy predictions. And here’s a list of every Record of the Year winner in history.
Last Updated on December 13, 2025