If you believe most of the prognosticators, no rap album has any chance of scoring an Album of the Year nomination for the 2027 Grammys.
Most forecasters expect the eight AOY nominees to be Bruno Mars, Noah Kahan, and six pop girls — some combination of Olivia Dean, Olivia Rodrigo, Taylor Swift, Raye, Rosalia, Madonna, and Phoebe Bridgers, with Ella Langley and Kacey Musgraves as the country music dark horses.
Gold Derby, in its extensive rankings of Album of the Year contenders, doesn’t have a single rap album in the Top 20. Its highest-ranked hip hop album, as of this writing, is J. Cole’s The Fall-Off, which ranks at #25.
Yet there are some good reasons to believe that at least one rap album might sneak into the Album of the Year field. Let’s go over the reasons why, and speculate about which rap record could make the cut.
Why a Hip Hop Album Could Earn a Surprise Nomination
The biggest reason to think a rap album will get nominated for Album of the Year is that the current membership of the Recording Academy is much more rap-friendly than it used to be.
In just the past few years, the Academy has drastically expanded its membership, bringing in thousands of new members, a large percentage of whom are young, female, and/or people of color. The goal was to diversify a voting body that was historically old, male, and white.
These new voters have shown they are much more willing to vote for rap music in the major categories than the old-school Grammy voters used to be. Kendrick Lamar won Record of the Year at each of the past two Grammy ceremonies. That’s an award rap artists rarely won in the past.
Also remember that last year’s Album of the Year field contained three rap nominees, an all-time record. There were enough rap-friendly voters in the Academy to secure nods for Lamar, Clipse, and Tyler the Creator, all in the same category.
If there are that many hip hop heads among the current voting membership, then the numbers tell us it’s very possible there will be at least one rap album nominated in 2027.
Which Rap Album Could Get Nominated for Album of the Year?
The most obvious rap AOY contender would be Drake’s Iceman. But Drake hasn’t submitted his music to the Grammys for many years.
With Drake out of the picture, three contenders seem to stand above the rest:
The Fall-Off, J. Cole
Octane, Don Toliver
Am I the Drama?, Cardi B
J. Cole’s double album was one of the most commercially successful rap records of the year. It debuted at #1, though its critical reviews are mixed. He’s a 4-time Best Rap Album nominee and could have the best shot of this group.
Despite already having four Top 10 Billboard albums, Don Toliver is still eligible for a Best New Artist, and we expect him to earn a BNA nod. He’s worked with Kanye, Eminem, Travis Scott, the Weeknd, and many more, so he has lots of friends in the Academy.
Cardi B is a Grammy winner who has continued to get nominated in recent years even for tracks that weren’t huge hits, like “Enough (Miami)” and “Outside.” Her latest project underperformed commercially, however.
Which of these artists could be the one to earn a surprise Album of the Year nomination? All of them have a case. I’d lean towards J. Cole, but don’t count out Toliver.
Gold Derby currently lists Cole’s odds of getting nominated at 1.07%, and Toliver’s odds at 0.27%.
I don’t know for sure whether a rap album will earn an Album of the Year nomination, but I can state with certainty that the actual odds for Cole to earn a surprise nom are way higher than 1%. This will be a good test of just how much voting power the hip hop contingent within the Recording Academy truly has.
Do you think it’s possible a rap album will get nominated? Leave a comment with your prediction!
Last Updated on September 22, 2026